Shaping Ukraine’s future in the midst of the war

Their research project, “(Re)constructing Modern Ukraine External link.”, focuses on the practices of reconstruction and builds upon fundamental questions: how resources are managed in a country at war, how production can restart despite damage to land and infrastructure, and the development of cities, communities and trust in institutions as people return. The project brings together researchers from Södertörn University and the Kyiv School of Economics, and is funded by the Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies External link., which has extended the project’s funding.

When the researchers met in Flemingsberg, one thing was clear: the outcome will not be decided by individual efforts, but how rules, incentives and behaviours work together.

When rules decide results

One element of the project is tracking how public procurement is changing during the war. In one workshop, Mats Bergman and Dmytro Serebrennikov showed how the system was rapidly adapted after the invasion, from formalised procurement processes with competition to direct purchasing and then a gradual return to more competitive procedures.

There are different ways of awarding contracts: direct procurements, simplified procedures and auctions where bids are made either directly or in stages – and these differences have clear consequences. Less structured procedures drove up prices but made it possible to get contracts in place swiftly. When more competition was introduced, prices were pushed downward and processes got slower.

An important change occurred in early 2023 when Ukraine moved to sealed bids in a single round, rather than companies making sequential bids in several rounds. Prices dropped by several per cent. Later, when the system changed back, they rose again. The more complex sequential auction is apparently more effective, because there is pressure on prices during bidding, but in practice it is open to coordination between the actors.

The results show how decisive the regulatory details are – the differences are equivalent to several billion Swedish kronor per year, making procurement one of the issues that physically shapes reconstruction.

Land that cannot be used

In agriculture, the challenges are more tangible and deal with whether production can actually restart. Pavlo Martyshev from the Kyiv School of Economics has presented analyses of what happens when land is used again.

Research shows that a great deal of funding has focused on demining, but problems remain even when the land is safe. Damage to soil structure, chemical residue and changed growing conditions mean that the land is not ready for agriculture. Farmers have to decide whether and how production can restart, often in uncertain financial circumstances.

Recovery will differ: large farms are more able to invest in testing and restoration, while small actors are often forced to take greater risks.

Parallel analyses of food chains indicate another pattern. The war has disrupted flows in the entire system, from input goods to transportation and exports. The effects vary hugely between regions, depending on control, the intensity of the fighting and access to infrastructure.

Overall, the results show that agricultural recovery will be a long process, where vital decisions will be made at farm level rather than through individual top-down measures.

How the war is changing people

The project is also following how the war is affecting people’s behaviour. A questionnaire with around 2,000 respondents links experiences of the war to trust, cooperativeness and the perception of institutions.

By comparing people with similar circumstances but differing degrees of exposure to violence, the researchers show how actual events influence attitudes. The results demonstrate that even short events can have clear effects, and that these change over time. This means that reconstruction is not simply a material issue, it also depends on the ways that trust, cooperation and the relationship between citizen and state develop in a society marked by war.

Cities where recovery begins

The urban studies are presenting a similar picture. People’s adaptability and resilience provide the foundation for reconstruction: services, local businesses and everyday functioning show the way for future urban development.

At the same time, historical tensions between the state, business and civil society influence how cooperation evolves and how quickly change is implemented. The cities will not just be rebuilt – they will be reshaped to become important arenas in the future of Ukraine.

A process that has already started

The overall impression is that reconstruction is not waiting for a peace deal to happen, it is already occurring in the decisions that are made every day, in uncertain conditions and at different levels.

It is in these processes that the outcome is determined, not only is what is done, but in how it works in practice.