Seeds of Dissent: the political economy of Farmers' Resistance in the Baltic Region. The cases of Poland and Sweden

This project provides the first comprehensive study of the political economy of farmers’ resistance to green transition policies in the Baltic Sea Region, focusing on two cases, Poland and Sweden.

Over the last few years, the mounting resistance to green transition policies, as voiced by European farmers, lobby groups, and politicians, has resulted in a noticeable downscaling of Brussels' environmental agenda, reflecting a broader policy realignment, with the EU prioritizing food security and agricultural competitiveness over sustainability (Finger et al 2024; Martin 2024). At the same time, the scientific consensus has long warned that agriculture in the Baltic Sea Region requires a fast and substantial transformation in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient runoff (causing eutrophication of the Baltic Sea), biodiversity loss and soil degradation (Crippa et al., 2021; Müller-Karulis et al., 2024; Rosa & Gabrielli, 2023). Understanding the forces that shape resistance to sustainable transformation is therefore critical for effective policy development.

This project provides the first comprehensive study of the political economy of farmers’ resistance to green transition policies in the Baltic Sea Region, focusing on two cases, Poland and Sweden, at the local, national, and EU levels, seeking to be the first multi-level analysis. This project will examine the interplay of ideological, material, and organizational factors shaping agricultural protests, focusing on the role of farmers’ organizations, of populist parties, and of the respective socio-technical regimes (Geels, 2002; Köhler et al., 2019). Rather than relying on the growing typologies of populism studies, however, this project will integrate the political and social dynamics linked to farmers’ protests within insights from the field of critical agrarian studies (CAS) and in particular, the theory of socio-technical transition (STT). These aims are anchored on the answers to three essential research questions:

RQ1. How do different farmers’ organizations articulate and mobilize their position to European green transition policies in Poland and Sweden at the local, national and EU levels?

RQ2. What role do populist parties play in farmers’ organization in Poland and Sweden at the local, national and EU levels? Do they mostly lead, or follow?

RQ3. What roles do the different entrenched socio-technical regimes play in driving farmers’ positionings to green transition policies in Poland and Sweden, and how do these contexts differ?

It reveals the divergent potential pathways within a broader pattern of political mobilization and organized action - through both lobbying and street protests - against the matrix of current EU agricultural policies tackling climate change and environmental sustainability (cf. EC 2021, 2022, 2023, EEA 2023; Buzalka 2020; Mamonova et al. 2021; Copa-Cogeca 2023). In Poland, for instance, the country’s largest agrarian trade union - the NSZZ RI [Rural Solidarity - Niezależny Samorządny Związek Zawodowy Rolników Indywidualnych ‘Solidarność’] - called a national strike against the European Green Deal (EGD), blocking 260 major roads up and down the country (Nowakowska 2025, DW 2024). And in early 2025, farmers were again out on Warsaw’s streets, just as Poland was assuming the presidency of the EU Council (Chmal 2025, Euronews 2025). Poland has a history of strong farmer mobilization and a tradition of right-wing populism claiming to represent it (Foryś 2023, Wenzel 2023, Buzalka 2021, Bilewicz 2020), but the context is different in Sweden. While protests there have taken place, the scale has been very modest (DN 2024). The largest farmers’ organization, the LRF [Federation of Swedish Farmers - Lantbrukarnas Riksförbund] has stated (2024) that street protests are not the way forward. And yet, political debates over environmental measures in the agro-food sector have become increasingly polarized (Alarcón-Ferrari 2020). As a survey by Land (LRF's magazine) revealed in 2022, the Sweden Democrats (SD) had surpassed the Centre Party (formerly the Farmers' League) as the preferred political choice among farmers (Johansson, 2022).The project interrogates the intensification of agricultural protests across the Baltic Sea Region, and Europe more generally, over recent years (AP 2024).