CBEES Advanced Seminar with Victoria Leukavets, Researcher at CBEES, Södertörn University.

Speaker: Victoria Leukavets, Researcher at CBEES, Södertörn University.

Discussant: Matthew Kott, Researcher at the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies, IRES, Uppsala University.

Chair: Andrei Stsiapanau, Researcher at the School of Historical and Contemporary Studies, Södertörn University.

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus and addresses the puzzle of why they were followed by massive, unprecedented protests. It argues that a nexus of long-term structural factors and short-term triggers, magnified through key enabling mechanisms, produced a qualitative shift in the Belarusian electorate and mobilized large numbers of citizens to protest in the aftermath of the election.

While existing research on elections in Belarus acknowledges their failure to meet international standards, it often overlooks the more nuanced dynamics of electoral processes. This paper seeks to address this gap through an in-depth case study, drawing in part on the author’s experience as an independent citizen observer during the 2020 presidential elections.

The study contributes to three strands of scholarship: the micro-dynamics of authoritarian elections, electoral integrity, and the factors and mechanisms that challenge the stability of consolidated authoritarian regimes. It forms part of the upcoming edited volume Between Continuity and Change: Rethinking Politics, Society, and Identity in Belarus, to be published in the Belarus Voices book series, where the author serves as editor-in-chief.

Dr. Victoria Leukavets is a post-doctoral researcher at the Center for Baltic and Eastern European Studies (CBEES) and editor in chief of the Belarus Voices book series at Ibidem Press. Her research interests focus on Belarus's domestic and foreign policy, elections and protests in non-democratic regimes, and the political economy of international sanctions.