Opposition in exile: how can Russia be influenced from a distance?

For organisations in exile, the question of influence is complex; they are trying to influence what happens in Russia, but must also build networks, apply for funding and formulate their messages in the countries where they operate. This can create tensions between those who have left the country and those who stayed.

Dorogov highlights the debate surrounding the opposition party Yabloko as one example of how support from the diaspora can sometimes be perceived as burdensome for organisations within Russia. Still, he regards initiatives like Peaceful Russia as attempts to keep a political alternative alive and to function as a link between Russia and the outside world.

“The most important thing is to maintain contain with the reality in Russia and act as a bridge. You can make a real difference just by explaining what is happening in Russia to people outside the country,” he says.

Russia after Putin?

Issues surrounding the significance of the exiled opposition are linked to what a future Russia might look like. However, Dorogov also warns against the idea that a change at the top will automatically lead to democratisation.

“Many people talk about a post-Putin Russia as if everything will change when he disappears. I don’t think it is that simple. A significant proportion of the population supports the current developments. They will not disappear overnight,” he says.

He points to years of propaganda, an increasingly ideologised education system and the gradual weakening of democratic institutions. However, he does not want to make definite prognoses – the fall of the Soviet Union showed how quickly historic change can occur.

“You have to constantly think about the impact that your actions abroad have on people who are still in Russia. We should try to help, but without making the situation any worse for those who continue to work there. Perhaps the most important task is to keep the connection alive until new opportunities arise,” he says.