New study shows how war affects trust in the Ukrainian police

“Most studies look at the military or the president – if the police are studied, it relates to terrorism, not war. What we have done is to test a new institution in a new context, and fill a gap by doing so,” says Tony Mickelsson Blomqvist, who is responsible for the study, along with Susanna Bellander. They are both lecturers in Police Work.

Significant jump in trust – which quickly disappeared

Prior to the invasion, Ukrainian police had low trust ratings. On a five-point scale, they were at around one or two, levels that entail people did not really trust the police at all. This changed dramatically when the invasion occurred.

“There was a significant increase in wartime. Trust rose to around 3.65, which is a qualitatively different level and indicated that people did trust the police, to a certain extent,” says Mickelsson Blomqvist.

However, this effect was short-lived.

“This high-trust honeymoon period quickly ended. The figures fall quite dramatically, and by our final data point in 2024, trust is almost back at the same level as before the invasion,” he says.

An emotional effect in a difficult reality

An initial increase in trust, followed by decline, is a familiar pattern in studies of political leaders during crises. However, until now there was there has been no scientific documentation that the police follow the same logic.

“This is an emotional response to war and crisis. People hope that institutions will cope with the situation, but the effect is temporary and short-lived,” says Mickelsson Blomqvist.

The complex role of the police in war – greater than many realise

An important reason why the police have not previously been studied in war research is that they are often overshadowed by the military, but the police soon become vital when society is pushed to breaking point.

“In wartime, the focus is on military power and diplomacy. However, the police have a greater role than you might first think. Around ten per cent of the Ukrainian police force are combatants, and they deal with internal displacement, social unrest and local security in areas affected by the war,” says Mickelsson Blomqvist.

His descriptions show that police in Ukraine are juggling a double mission: combat duties in parallel with their regular public service duties. This is an exceptional situation that has long been unresearched.

Why is this knowledge important for Sweden?

Swedish interest in the role of the police in total defence has grown significantly in recent years. Discussions about whether the police should have combatant status, their duties in the event of heightened preparedness, and how civic institutions should function in wartime are no longer just theoretical questions, which is why the study’s findings raise key questions for a Swedish context as well.

“It is important to recognise that the police also have an important role to play in wartime. We don’t always think about this,” says Mickelsson Blomqvist.

At the same time, Swedish opinion polls show that public confidence in the police is very high. How this would be affected in a serious crisis and how it could be used to bolster public security are questions that do yet have clear answers. However, thanks to the study from Ukraine, they are now beginning to take shape.

A research area that has just opened up

The study is not the end point. Instead, it marks the starting point for an area in which more knowledge is needed. The researchers now wish to take their work further, including studies of how police officers operate in frontline areas and how local communities are affected by ongoing conflict.

“How do the police operate when people are fleeing, new officers are joining the force, and the officers themselves are combatants? How can they maintain community policing? That’s the sort of thing I find really interesting,” says Mickelsson Blomqvist.

By highlighting the role of the police in wartime, the study has laid a foundation that may be significant far beyond Ukraine’s borders, including in Sweden, where issues of preparedness and civil defence now have a greater presence.